All real estate is local, and this monthly report is a resource for those buying or selling on the Portland metro’s west side. The data below is for the areas including but not limited to NW Portland, SW Portland, Beaverton, Bethany, Hillsboro, Tigard, and Lake Oswego, and includes all residential resale transactions (new construction not included).
Well, it finally happened: prices dropped. What goes up must come down (which isn’t actually true, at least the “must” part), but nevertheless the June median sales price on the Portland west side is indeed down from May by about 3.2%:
That was quite a rise in both list and sale prices for the first four months of this year, so even with this recent drop the median sale price is still 12.6% higher than it was in January. What has changed- particularly in the last month- is the level of buyer demand in the market. List prices have remained flat for three months now, while that gap between list and sale prices has shrunk down to 3.4%. We haven’t seen a gap that small since February, and the last few months that percent-over-list has run in the 5-7% range.
Another data point that illustrates the lessening demand are the number of listings that drop in price, which has been rising exponentially:
That weekly number went up about sixfold since March, before taking a dip last week. If it dips again next week it may be an indication that homes are starting to get back to being priced more or less correctly, in line with what the current market can bear.
The cooling off is also seen in the number of sales, which last month came in at a total of 1138:
The number of new listings is on pace with last year- in fact, June 2022 had all of eight more new listings than June 2021- but the number of closed sales in the month is remarkably lower. That number is down about 25% from last June.
The last piece of the narrative for now is the percentage of sales that went over or under list price. There’s quite a correction happening here:
As recently as two months ago it was the case that around 75% of houses that sold went for over the list price, and as discussed earlier they were going for 5-7% over list. The gap is narrowing now, with less than 2/3 of them going for over list in June, and at 3.4% above. While that’s still the majority of sold houses, it’s getting closer to equilibrium.
Add it all up and there’s tangible evidence now that the cooling off is real, and producing lower prices. It’s no longer anecdotal. Yes, it is still a sellers market, and the market for the cream of the crop properties hasn’t changed much at all, but overall there is a tremendous amount more opportunity for buyers now- less bidding wars, houses staying on the market longer, and list prices that are closer to value. Someday we may even see “normal” again, whatever that is. We’re not there yet, but it’s getting closer.
I am a licensed real estate broker in the state of Oregon. Data is sourced from RMLS, and all analysis is mine and mine alone. Other opinions may vary. If you would like a free analysis of your specific area, please contact me at eli.cotham@eleetere.com or via the contact page.
