Whenever I feel like I’m hearing the same anecdotes over and over, I tend to do two things. First I roll my eyes, which is my natural tendency when confronted with anecdotal evidence (which is an oxymoron). Second, I see if there’s a way to use actual data to either confirm or refute the anecdotal evidence. I’ve heard enough times that Portland and Multnomah County, via their real and perceived ills, are causing people to leave. High income and property taxes? Yep. Homeless problem? Definitely. Out-of-control crime? Depends who you ask, but not really. Perception is reality though to a lot of people, so a lot of people believe it’s a mess.
The latest US census data shows that the population of Portland dropped 2.5% from April 2020 through July 2022. Multnomah County was about the same, which figures since the city of Portland makes up about 80% of the county population. Washington County’s population was flat for that time period, while Clackamas County went up about half a percent.
With that data and the aforementioned anecdotes, I wanted to see how home sales and prices in Multnomah County have trended over the past few years, particularly as compared to its neighboring counties in the Portland metro. First, active listings. Are more people putting their houses up for sale in MultCo?
The data being analyzed here (and in other graphs) is for the January-May period of each year- going back to 2019- and for resale homes only (sorry new construction, I don’t care about you right now). The number of homes being listed in each county is somewhat irrelevant- yes, Multnomah County has had more active listings than the other two counties, but that’s because the population is that much larger. The change since 2019 is relevant. The percentage drop in active listings is lower in MultCo, which means more people are attempting to sell their houses (compared to the other two counties).
Closed sales tend to track alongside active listings- at least as one would hope. That’s the case here. This data mirrors the active listing data, as it should. The reduction in closed sales in Multnomah County is lower than in the neighboring counties since there’s a corresponding lower reduction in listings.
Finally, the piece that matters more than the others. How are home values doing in Multnomah County?
Nationally, home prices have risen about 40% in the time period I’m measuring (wow!). While Washington and Clackamas Counties have matched that rate, Multnomah County sale prices have risen about 25%.
So, there appears to be some truth to support the anecdotal evidence. Home prices in Multnomah County are rising but not as fast as neighboring counties (or the nation as a whole), the population has dropped a modest amount, and more people appear to be selling their homes. Sometimes where there’s smoke there is fire.
Moving on to the meat and potatoes. Spring does as spring does so home prices on the west side of Portland continued to rise in May, now up to a median of $614,500:
The median price one year ago was the all-time high. We’re now off 4% from that number. In addition, the median sale price is now 2.4% over the median list price, as we’ve seen that gap growing over the past few months, and two-thirds of all houses that sell do so at or above list price:
That graph has been a wild one for the past twelve months. So has this one:
Broken record time: it’s all about the inventory, or lack thereof. This is why 7% interest rates aren’t driving prices down by much, and why houses still sell quickly and over list:
New listings in May were down 23% from last year, and year-to-date they’re down 29%. This is incredibly frustrating for those buyers who want to buy a damn house already, and totally understandable for those sellers who don’t want to walk away from their 3% interest rate.
Summer is upon us, and the drudgery of the winter housing market is a distant memory. Perhaps more sellers will see that the gravy train is back on the tracks? Buyers are waiting.
I am a licensed real estate broker in the state of Oregon with ELEETE Real Estate. Data is sourced from RMLS, and all analysis is mine and mine alone. If I can be of assistance in your home search or sale, please contact me at eli.cotham@eleetere.com or via the contact page.
