“Hey Eli, why would I sell my house when the market is dead?”
What’s that you say, straw man asking me a fake question? The market is “dead”? Since when?
I’ve got news for everyone that’s been doomscrolling housing and economic news. The Portland housing market is far from dead. Yes, inventory is down, as are sales. For the west side of Portland in the past month, new listings were down 30% from last year. Sales were down 38%. Prices, however, are only off about 3% from last year and for the first time since July, the median sale price came in higher than the median list price.
See that gap between the red and blue lines? That’s the difference between what houses listed for and what they closed at, and the ball is now back on the seller side of the field.
Now take a look at a more dramatic bit of evidence that the market is going well:
Now THAT’S a nosedive. The average amount of time that a sold listing spent on the market went from 72 days in February to 52 days in March, while the median dropped from 42 days to 12. This means that half of all the houses that sold in March found a buyer in under 12 days. This isn’t as bonkers as it was last year when that number was four (buyers essentially had 72 hours to find a house, see it, and write a winning offer), but make no mistake- houses are moving quickly.
Meanwhile, interest rates are staying pretty sticky between 6 and 7%. The recent economic data and Fed activity haven’t really moved the needle on that front, and nobody worth paying attention to thinks that much will meaningfully change in the coming months. Buyers have inured themselves to this new reality.
Sellers should too. The fear that some would-be sellers had in the past several months is that they would be entering a market in which buyers were either in wait-and-see mode or out of the game completely. That may have been the case last fall, but it isn’t now. It is clear that there is still plenty of demand to go around and not enough supply. True, you probably won’t get 15 offers on your house like your neighbor did last March. You might get two or three instead, but if you’re any good at math you know that you can only sell your house to one buyer anyway. There is opportunity to be had by listing right now.
I am a licensed real estate broker in the state of Oregon with ELEETE Real Estate. Data is sourced from RMLS, and all analysis is mine and mine alone. If I can be of assistance in your home search or sale, please contact me at eli.cotham@eleetere.com or via the contact page.
