List Price is Merely a Suggestion

Posted inReal Estate
"I can't believe this market, every house is going for $100k over asking!" Whether in conversation or online forums, that- or something similar- has been commonly heard over the past couple of years. The impression is that everything goes for over asking. The reality is more nuanced. This past July, the percent of homes that sold above their asking price was 40%. About the same number sold under asking, and 20% sold at their current list price (which may not be…
What Makes Home Prices “Sticky?”

What Makes Home Prices “Sticky?”

Posted inReal Estate
The more things change, the more they stay the same. The median sale price of a home on Portland's west side this June was $625,000, up .8% over last June. For the first half of the year combined, the median was 2.6% lower than it was for 2022's first half. In other words, despite a year of rapid change to the world of mortgage lending- changes that essentially doubled the cost of financing- the price of the home itself has stuck…
Are People Actually Fleeing Portland?

Are People Actually Fleeing Portland?

Posted inReal Estate
Whenever I feel like I'm hearing the same anecdotes over and over, I tend to do two things. First I roll my eyes, which is my natural tendency when confronted with anecdotal evidence (which is an oxymoron). Second, I see if there's a way to use actual data to either confirm or refute the anecdotal evidence. I've heard enough times that Portland and Multnomah County, via their real and perceived ills, are causing people to leave. High income and property taxes?…
Unclutch Those Pearls: LLPA’s Explained

Unclutch Those Pearls: LLPA’s Explained

Posted inReal Estate
A few weeks ago, some news about mortgage pricing that was originally announced in January finally got noticed by some in the media who, doing what media often does, framed it in a way that is designed to outrage rather than inform. In this case, the narrative became one of Biden screwing over hard-working Americans in favor of those who have been less "responsible" financially. The reality, as always, needs context. If you don't know what the hell I'm talking about…
Reports of the Housing Market’s Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Reports of the Housing Market’s Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Posted inReal Estate
"Hey Eli, why would I sell my house when the market is dead?" What's that you say, straw man asking me a fake question? The market is "dead"? Since when? I've got news for everyone that's been doomscrolling housing and economic news. The Portland housing market is far from dead. Yes, inventory is down, as are sales. For the west side of Portland in the past month, new listings were down 30% from last year. Sales were down 38%. Prices, however,…

Why Mortgage Rates are Spiking. Again.

Posted inReal Estate
Well, that was a fun time in January when interest rates dropped for about a minute. The holidays were behind us, it was a bright new year, and the leading economic brains were bullish on the Fed's war on inflation, so mortgage rates took a nice dip. Until they didn't. February's data changed the outlook somewhat. Mortgage rates, in the most general sense, are influenced by speculation in the bond market. Those speculators (think of guys yelling "buy buy buy! No,…

Have Home Prices Bottomed Out?

Posted inReal Estate
Let's consider for a moment the possibility that the home price correction, which started in earnest last summer, is over. Prices in our part of the world have taken quite a dip since then. The seasonal drop in price and activity is normal, but still- the median sale price in January was about 18% lower than it was in July, and 5.5% lower than it was last January. So it's been a more sustained drop than in previous years, driven by…
How to Be a First-Time Home Buyer in 2023

How to Be a First-Time Home Buyer in 2023

Posted inReal Estate
So you've decided that this is the year but there's one problem: you have no clue where to start. How much money do I need? How much will the bank lend to me? How do I find a Realtor who knows what the hell they're doing? I've got answers. Let's talk about the elephant in the room first. Housing affordability is bad right now. Since the start of 2020, right about the time a certain global health crisis was beginning, home…
2023. What to Expect?

2023. What to Expect?

Posted inReal Estate
The more things change, the more they stay the same. That's one lesson that can be learned from this past year's real estate market, which saw frenzy in the spring (remember when every house seemed to have fifteen offers and sell for $100,000 over list?) and pretty much the exact opposite of that in the fall. We saw interest rates double in the space of a few months, and now we've seen the median home price in our area drop 10-15%…
Charts and Graphs! November Market Report

Charts and Graphs! November Market Report

Posted inReal Estate
All real estate is local, and this monthly report is a resource for those buying or selling on the Portland metro’s west side. The data below is for the areas including but not limited to NW Portland, SW Portland, Beaverton, Bethany, Hillsboro, Tigard, and Lake Oswego, and includes all residential resale transactions (new construction not included). November and December are as good a time as any for those in the real estate profession to take a few days off. Here's why:…